Following on from my previous post, Pete Whitehead (LINK) has now drawn up the boundaries which look like this as he explains
(colours signify new seat not colour of party)
OK so here are my West Midlands proposals – 54 seats which fits the quota, but my ward figures are the old ones. One or two seats fall below the lower limit on those figures.
I’ve gone in quite heavily both for crossing county boundaries and for splitting wards. It might be preferable to stick to pairings of boroughs/counties but to maintain some kind of natural communities I’ve gone for seats which cross the West Midlands and Warwickshire (four times), West Midlands and Staffordshire (twice) and West Midlands and Worcestershire. I felt happy to do so because the areas of the West MIdlands involved were historically part of those respective counties. I have also crossed the border between Warwickshire and Staffordshire and between Shropshire and Herefordshire and Herefordshire and Worcestershire. It might perhaps have been quicker to say that I haven’t crossed the boundary between Worcestershire and Warwickshire or that between Shropshire and Staffordshire. Effectively (and notwithstanding the last statement) I have treated the entire region as one.
I have split seven wards, all within the Metropolitan county (two each in Dudley and Solihull and one each in Walsall, Sandwell and Wolverhampton).
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So as it affects Pheasey and the Urban West Midlands, and note once again someone predicts we will be in a Birmingham region but this time Perry Barr and not Erdington as before. I have seen no prediction that suggests the main part of Pheasey will stay with a Walsall MP.
Birmingham Northfield – 77,214
As now but gains the Beacon and Waseley wards from Bromsgrove for probably a fairly neutral political effect
Birmingham Edgbaston – 77,040
As now but gains Abbey ward from Sandwell. Prob adds a couple of thousand to Labour majority
Birmingham Selly Oak – 74,490
Loses Billesley and gains Moseley
Birmingham Hall Green – 77,178
Loses Moseley and Sparkbrook. Gains Billesley and Acocks Green
Birmingham Yardley – 73,981
Loses Acocks Green. Gains Shard End and part of Lyndon ward from Solihull (necessary to raise above minimum quota)
Birmingham Erdington – 76,607
Loses Kingstanding. Gains Hodge Hill and Castle Bromwich
Birmingham Bordesley – 77,265
Replaces Hodge Hill which loses Hodge Hill and Shard End and gains Sparkbrook and Nechells
Birmingham Ladywood – 72,276
Loses Nechells. Gains Lozells
Birmingham Perry Barr – 77,462
Loses Lozells. Gains Kingstanding and most of Pheasey Park Farm ward from Walsall
Sutton Coldfield – 74,877
Unchanged seat
Walsall North – 73,322
Actually slightly over half the electorate coming from Aldridge Brownhills in four wards (therefore a majority of that seat) the remainder from Walsall North ( a minority of that seat). Conservative by probably around 5,000 in 2010
Walsall South – 75,580
Rather more based on the seat of the same name but still only a bit over half the electorate (40,000) coming from Walsall South, a furtehr 20,000 from ALdridge and Streetly and 15,000 from Great Barr and the northern half of Charlemont and Grove Vale. Also Conservative by a comfortable margin in 2010
Wednesbury – 75,142
Taking around 30,000 voters each from Walsall North (Willenhall and Short Heath) and West Brom West (Wednesbury, Friar Park) with around 18,000 in Darlaston from Walsall South. Safe Labour seat of course, but not a huge majority in 2010
West Bromwich & Smethwick – 76,176
40,000 voters from West Brom East with around 25,000 from Warley (Smethwick) and another 9,000 in Oldbury from West Brom West.
Halesowen – 75,628
Halesowen & Rowley minus Rowley and Cradley Heath (19,000) but gains 27,000 votes from Warley in Bristnall, Langley and Old Warley. Makes it a bit more marginal but would have been Tory still in 2010 by about 1,000
Stourbridge – 77,867
Relatively minor changes. Loses about two thirds of Quarry Bank while gaining Wordsley and half of Brierly Hill – net fairly neutral affect
Dudley & Rowley Regis – 76,263
Not an obvious succesor to any seat. Largest donor is Dudley North (30,000 voters in four wards) but also 19,000 in Rowley regis from H&RR plus voters from Dudley South, Stourbridge and west Brom West (Tividale)
Kingswinford – 75,498
Very loosely based on Dudley South which donates 35,000 voters in Kingswinford, Brockmoor Pensnett and Nrierly Hill but also 30,000 from Dudley North in Sedgeley and Gornal and another 9,000 from South Staffordshire around Kinver. Changes will make this a relatively safe Conservative seat
Bilston & Tipton – 76,195
Most of Wolverhampton SE (48,000) – loses East Park and northern part of Blakenhalll ward. Remainder (28,000) from Tipton Green, Great Bridge and Princes End wards from west Brom West
Wolverhampton East – 73,801
The whole of Wolverhampton NE plus East Park ward from SE and St Peters ward from SW
Wolverhampton West – 74,948
redrawn Wolves SW. Loses St Peters. Gains northern part of Blakenhall from SE and around 19,000 from Staffs South in Womborne and Perton. The first and last changes are likely to be beneficial towards the Conservatives here
What are the timescales for change? The next general election in 2015? How does this affect local councils? If we do move into a Birmingham parliamentary area does this automatically mean that we move into Birmingham for local government purposes as well?
Good question Duncan
The time scale I believe is that the new boundaries are to be confirmed by the end of 2012.
this does not affect the council boundaries at all but there is a regular review of those anyway so moving into a Birmingham MP’s area could influence the choice of council at the next council boundary review.
Interesting
it will be for us for sure, , the debate will start when we know in 2013, so a long way off yet and remember no right of appeal